Geopolitically speaking, Viktor Orbán is making a lot out of a little. More than seems possible.
In 2023, Hungary’s GDP was below that of notoriously mismanaged Greece and above only Slovakia among its Visegrád allies. It is not on the Euro (pay in forints, please). It is not a technology hub. It has a diversified economy and relatively modern infrastructure, but only one major city, that being Budapest.
Despite the efforts of Hungarian geniuses on the Manhattan Project, the country possesses no atomic weapons. To its immediate east, a hot war is raging in Ukraine. To the south and west, Hungary faces illegal migration concerns along its Romanian and Serbian borders. In addition to local concerns, it has been engaged in years of tit-for-tat with EU leadership over refugee acceptances, internal Hungarian politics, corruption allegations, and EU funds owed to Budapest.
Hungary’s list of challenges, geographic, political, and economic could go on for the length of a book if not several volumes, let alone this article.
In theory, Hungary should be a struggling landlocked state with minimal sway outside of its region. Despite this, Orbán’s geopolitical influence continues to grow. In recent weeks alone, he has been spoken of favorably by Donald Trump in his widely viewed presidential debate opposite Kamala Harris.
His is often the most far-reaching voice among Visegrád leaders. Of EU heads of state, he is the fiercest opponent to mass migration. In NATO debates, Hungary has often been the lone nation calling for de-escalation and peace in Ukraine. Outside of Europe, American conservatives follow his lead on cultural issues and under his watch, bi-lateral trade with China continues to accelerate as the EU grows more skeptical of Beijing.
Orbán’s ability to draw attention to Hungary and his Fidesz party’s political and cultural successes seems to defy reason. It is not accidental or inexplicable, though, alchemical as this all may seem.
Therefore, it is worth taking time to explore Orbán’s domestic and foreign policy strategies that have allowed him to gain exponentially outsized influence in multiple global arenas.
A Secure Foundation
How has the long-serving Prime Minister of Magyarország managed to punch so far above his weight?
As with most success stories, Orbán’s has been built upon a solid foundation. Since 2010, his Fidesz party (the outgrowth of an anti-communist student organization that originally brought Orbán into the public consciousness) has maintained parliamentary super majorities. They have done so by focusing on implementing a culturally conservative and economically populist agenda. From pro-family policies that reward motherhood and marriage to aggressive defense of its borders (often in opposition to the EU’s orders), Orbán and Fidesz have been unwilling to waiver on core aspects of their agenda.
Indeed, despite generating EU disavowals and monetary punishment, Orbán’s robust defense of Hungarian culture has allowed him to avoid the pitfalls of many long-time democratic leaders. In conversations with everyday Hungarians, it is common to hear criticisms of Orbán and Fidesz. However, it is rare to speak to voters, even in cosmopolitan Budapest (not a Fidesz stronghold), who do not respect Orbán or understand his agenda. Despite criticism in the Western media over Hungarian democracy and press freedom, one needn’t go far to hear opposing views and spot advertisements from opposition political parties.
Maintaining ethnic homogeneity is another core focus of Orbán’s traditionalist agenda. This has proven both valuable and difficult in an era of mass migration. In the past decade, as Brussels and most Western European leaders were willing to accept millions of supposed refugees and economic migrants, Orbán bucked their efforts.
He saw early on the cultural challenges that would emerge if Hungary were to accept enormous numbers of military age men from non-Christian cultures and countries. Though the country offers a range of visas for legal migrants and has opened a refugee program for Ukrainians, they have not wavered on their refusal to support the core tenets of EU’s mass migration agenda.
Leaders and MEPs in Brussels can accuse Orbán and Fidesz of corruption, an unwillingness to accept migrants, and engaging in political crackdowns on the media until they have lost their voices. Most Hungarians will simply continue to view the EU as a bigger threat and value Orbán’s willingness to act as a cultural bulwark in an age of disintegrating borders. After all, Hungary is a country whose politics since roughly 1848 have revolved around resistance to aggressive outside influence and that shows no signs of changing no matter how vocal Western Europe continues to be.
If Orbán continues to keep border security strong (and often reminds Schengen members he believes they should do the same) , focus on protecting Hungarian culture, promoting traditional family values, and making efforts to strengthen the Magyar economy, he should be able to maintain a strong grip on power for as long as he wishes to hold office.
Geopolitics
Having negotiated firm footing on the domestic plane, Orbán turned his sights to the region and broader world. In particular, he has strategically utilized Hungary’s EU and Veto-Protected NATO memberships and geographical location to maximum effect.
Take the Russian invasion of Ukraine, for example. Hungarians take the Ukrainian conflict seriously given both its proximity and their national history. This has put Orbán in a position where he wants to support the Ukrainian people while also preventing the conflict from spreading. He views being too aggressive toward Russia as a strategy that could potentially expand the war and encroach on the safety of his people.
No Hungarian leader can act in an openly pro-Russian fashion and maintain power. Orbán’s anti-communist past shows us that he knows this as well as anyone. However, courting Putin in attempts to end a bloody conflict ravaging Hungary’s eastern neighbor does not appear to be seen as a betrayal by a significant portion of voters, many of whom view Russia as a threat.
There is also an ethnic aspect to this conflict for Hungarians.
In the far west of Ukraine lie the Transcarpathian Mountains where it is believed that roughly 75,000 ethnic Hungarians reside as Ukrainian citizens. While these people may not be Hungarians from a voting perspective, Orbán instinctively has an interest in protecting them as part of his culturally conservative agenda. This gives him ample reason to work on preventing the war from spreading westward. Hungary has also had clashes with past Ukrainian governments who sought to solidify the use of Ukrainian as the language of its citizens opposed to Russian, which remains dominant in some regions. This crackdown also impacted the Hungarian minority, though laws were loosened due to internal and external blowback.
Another strategic element to consider is that if Ukraine were ever to fall, there is a chance Orbán could reclaim some of the much-missed land of the former Kingdom of Hungarian, which was carved up following the post-WW1 Treaty of Trianon. This is unlikely (and hopefully Ukraine can bring the fight to successful resolution with Western support), but it adds an additional layer to Orbán’s approach to the conflict. Given his openness to accepting Ukrainian refugees, this is, if anything, an afterthought rather than something he is working toward.
On the economic front, Orbán and two of his Visegrád allies have had disputes with Brussels related to Ukrainian grain shipments. 2023 saw Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia ban a range of Ukrainian agricultural goods. They became concerned about the EU potentially prioritizing Ukrainian grain products above their own and sought to protect their agricultural industries from being diluted. While the EU had previously agreed to ban grain imports, the ban expired, and these three member states sought to extend it to avoid a flooding of the grain market. While perhaps a smaller conflict, it displayed Orbán’s willingness to buck EU leadership and carve out a lane as the leader of the Visegrád nations (at least in matters of negotiations with Brussels).
Beyond basic economics, NATO has sought to expand by admitting Finland and Sweden since the start of the Ukrainian invasion, Hungary has wielded its veto to maximum effect. It temporarily joined with Türkiye to hold up Sweden’s NATO ascension. While he eventually acquiesced, holding up Sweden’s membership was a finger in the eye to the Scandinavian nation who had criticized his government from afar until they needed its support. A particularly rich moment given Sweden’s recent realization that their own mass immigration policy must now be reversed.
Knowing how strategically aware Orbán is, one can imagine he gained other benefits from either NATO or the EU, not to mention Sweden, by ultimately stamping Hungary’s approval of Sweden’s ascension into law.
Orbán has also used the threat of his veto to allow NATO to further fund and provide defensive support to Ukraine without Hungarian involvement. In June of 2024, Orbán was able to gain assurances from incoming NATO Secretary General and recently defeated Dutch PM Mark Rutte to allow this arrangement to continue. With this setup, Hungary maintains full NATO protection with minimal need to financial or physical commit to a war effort they view as a lost cause.
Orbán calling for an end to the war, challenging NATO consensus, banning Ukrainian grain imports, and maintaining an open line with the Kremlin has won him few friends in Western Europe. This has threatened Hungary’s ability to access funds due them from Brussels, which in recent years have been frozen and used as a cudgel against his government.
The EU is not, however, the only show in town when it comes to providing funds with which Fidesz can operate and attempt to grow the Hungarian economy.
Beijing has proven willing to fill the partial vacuum Brussels has created. They have injected billions into the Hungarian economy via infrastructure projects and other economic investments. It is estimated that bi-lateral trade between Budapest and Beijing has reached 14.52 billion dollars in 2023. Direct investment in Hungary from China for that same year was $7.6B, which made up roughly 58% of overall outside investment in the country.
There is no doubt that courting China can prove risky as African and South American nations have learned. This is especially true given the size differential between the two nations. However, Hungary is strategically important to China’s Belts and Roads initiative and Hungary needs outside capital to continue strengthening its economy. It remains to be seen how successful this partnership will be for both sides, but for now, Chinese investment has allowed Orbán to continue his fights against perceived aggression and mistreatment from Brussels.
Having a strong relationship with Xi and China, much like maintaining diplomatic ties to Moscow, also gives Orbán greater prominence on the global playing field. This adds value to the relationship that is more challenging to quantify than the large dollar amounts being invested by Beijing.
So far in 2024, Orbán has hosted Xi in Budapest and went on a global peace mission with stops in Mar-A-Lago and Moscow. Though the peace efforts may prove fruitless, they are receiving global press coverage and further solidifying Orbán’s position as a geopolitical power player.
Media, Education, and International Outreach
While Orbán’s Eastward overtures have been drawing attention, he has also sought to make friends far to Hungary’s West. Americans, particularly those in the conservative movement, have become quite familiar with Mr. Orbán.
Stunning Danube straddling Buda and Pest have long been a travel destination for American sightseers. Recent years have seen Hungary’s capital grow into a land of political pilgrimage too. CPAC Hungary has become a popular annual event drawing conservatives from the US, Europe, and beyond. Tucker Carlson has interviewed Orbán in Hungary, publishing their conversation for millions to view.
American conservatives often bemoan the disparity in institutional power the Left maintains across government, education, and the arts. Efforts are being made to create a new American conservative cultural ecosystem, but Orbán’s work in this capacity is far more advanced.
Top thinkers in the conservative movement have been visiting fellows and long-term contributors to the Fidesz funded Danube Institute. Slightly younger organizations like Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC), which is chaired by Orbán’s son Balázs (a powerful elected leader in his own right), work to provide education to thousands annually. In a time where leftists maintain an iron grip on many vital Western educational institutions, Orbán has aimed to build and reform Hungarian education to provide students and future leaders with a more conservative reading of history and modernity.
Via these organizations and others in receipt of Fidesz support, Orbán can influence conversations locally and abroad. Given the commonsense approach of many of his pro-family policies and his respect for tradition, his work has appeal past Hungary’s borders. In an individualism focused conservative movement, Orbán has managed to give organizers and politicians the world over a means by which to achieve collective successes. Hungary has gone as far as to pay lobbying dollars to spread elements of the Fidesz party's message to an American audience and scored a big interview with Tucker Carlson (albeit indirectly from the lobbying work).
Though voters in America or Western Europe would have minimal interest in passing explicitly Hungarian laws, they may find policies inspired by Fidesz to be interesting when presented in an American package. This is particularly true of Orbán’s pro-family efforts. These include home loans with reduced interest to new married couples planning to start a family and substantial tax breaks for women with children. By promulgating details about these policies and their impact, Orbán can amplify his message beyond Hungary’s borders.
These efforts show us that Orbán is not merely satisfied with enacting his culturally conservative agenda at home but also wishes to export policies and strategies to allies abroad. He has invested considerable funds and effort into building out the necessary educational, political, and media infrastructure to do so on a continuing basis.
Orbán and Hungary’s Future
While other leaders play checkers, Orbán is playing chess, as they say. Not only is he playing a more dynamic and complex game, but he is squeezing everything out of his pawns. Using Hungary's EU andSchengen memberships and NATO veto authority during a time of war, Orbán is sure to continue to turn apparent weaknesses into strengths.
When we consider Hungary’s size, location, and economic power, Orbán has managed a small miracle and placed his nation in a geopolitical position to which no other nation of similar ostensible importance can compare. What could be a former Soviet-ruled backwater known primarily for its beautiful capital city has become a focus of global attention for its modern geopolitical maneuvering and domestic agenda.
There are risks being taken beyond creating enemies in the EU, such as with courting China for massive infrastructure investments, but these risks are calculated. They are also unlikely to sink his party or the country.
Looking forward, if Donald Trump, who Orbán has wisely remained loyal to, manages to reclaim the presidency, expect Hungary to continue increasing their global prominence in years to come. Should Trump’s campaign prove successful, he will take office shortly after Hungary’s temporary leadership of the Council of the European Union is ending. Orbán, the master strategist, would never let these opportunities in the spotlight go to waste.
With or without Trump in power, expect more geopolitical alchemy to come from the Magyar PM. Plus, with his son now in a position of increasing power, the Orbán name should remain prominent in Hungary and across the globe long after Viktor retires from office.
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